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Notes on GFS forecast maps
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
weather forecast model that generates data for dozens of atmospheric and land-soil variables,
including temperatures, winds, precipitation, soil moisture, and atmospheric ozone concentration.
The system couples four separate models (atmosphere, ocean model, land/soil model, and sea ice) that work
together to accurately depict weather conditions.
GFS is a global model with a base horizontal resolution of 0.25° (28 kilometers) between grid points. The GFS is run 4 times a day, the temporal resolution covers analysis and forecasts out to 16 days.
GFS Europe: 850 hPa Forecast Stability
VERSIONE ITALIANA: CLICCA QUI
These maps compare the forecasts at 850 hPa of the last GFS run with those issued 12 hours earlier, computing the
differences between the temperatures and computing the differences between
the geopotentials of the two forecasts. White areas indicate a confirmation of the forecast
on temperatures, areas of color between yellow and red indicate that in the last run greater temperatures are expected, while areas of
color between light blue and purple indicates lower expected temperatures.
The differences in °C are shown on the colorbar.
Similarly, the differences between geopotentials at 850 hPa are also calculated: red lines in case of an increase of at least 25 m or blue in case of a decrease of at least 25 m.
On the top left is shown the UTC initialization time. UTC time is indicated with Z letter (Zulu Time). On the top right is shown the UTC forecast time.
The maps at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z are updated respectively starting from 04.30 AM, 10:30 AM, 4:30 PM, 10.30 PM (CEST TIime).
Forecast model: Global Forecast System (GFS) with 0.5°x0.5° (lat x lon) spatial resolution.
NOTE: in central European countries, when solar time is in effect, the CET time is used, which is equal to UTC +1 hour, while when daylight saving time is in effect, the CEST time is used, which is equal to UTC +2 hours. Right now it is 6:18 UTC.