GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Forecast stability through Ensemble Analysis (Spaghetti)
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecasting model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). GFS produces 4 new forecasts per day, providing dozens of atmospheric and surface variables such as temperatures, winds, precipitation, soil moisture, atmospheric ozone concentration, etc.
One of the underlying problems with any forecast is that the solutions offered by mathematical models can have a strong dependence on initial parameters, so even a minimal variation can lead to substantial changes in the forecast, especially in the long-range. This falls under chaos theory, specifically the butterfly effect.
The Ensemble graph (commonly known as "Spaghetti") acts as a tool to evaluate the reliability of a forecast by applying 20 different variations to the initial conditions, thus obtaining 20 new weather forecasts.
Select a city or use the map
Ensemble Graph
Select a city from the map or search bar to view the 15-day weather scenarios.